Mass hysteria

1. The hysteria

QOTD

"Human sacrifice!
Dogs and cats living together!
Mass hysteria!"
- Bill Murray, "Ghostbusters"

Working out over lunch, "CRISIS" flashed on many TV screens over and over again. Alas, it's this debt ceiling nonsense. There is a crappy buzz out there, piercing even my formidable media bubble. But before we solve this dire crisis... a bikini, sort of. (snort)

OK. Back to the hysteria. Some examples:

1. Peggy Noonan called President Obama a loser: wsj - They've lost that lovin' feeling. Um, Peggy's not always a big winner in my book.
2. This wood-chipper guy with an investment blog doesn't mince words: The US is fucked. Hey, at least Mr. Wood-chipper is NOT talking about the silly debt ceiling. He's saying that we're fucked over the $14T we owe, and that Congress will never reduce spending.
3. Nancy Pelosi is doing her best to save us all: "What we're trying to do is save the world from the Republican budget. We're trying to save life on this planet as we know it today."
4. Speaking of the debt ceiling, Bloomberg focuses entirely on the silliness with their debt ceiling calculator: bloomberg - August invoices show Treasury's limited choices

I don't think that Bloomberg's little calculator has the effect they intended. The interest on the debt in August is $29B. We take in $170B. So when President Obama and Secretary Geithner posit that we are near default, they are fibbing, or maybe just joking around.

And I can pay our bills without having to spend that  $170B. Going through the feds laundry list,the worthless crap is there for all to see:

• $14B - federal salaries and benefits... cut back
• $20B - Dept of Education... cut
• $15B - HUD, Dept Energy, federal highways... cut, cut, cut

The largest expenditure of all is $42B for "Other spending". What's that? "Most of these payments are federal obligations referred to as “unclassified,” meaning that the Treasury Department is unable to identify the type of spending." Cha. Cut.

QOTD

"If we're in such doo-doo, then why aren't they cutting back at the Mother Ship."
- Dennis Miller, on non-existent federal employees lay-offs

 

2. The (EZ) math

No hysteria needed. Fed spending from www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals:

• 2008: $2.5T in, $3.0T out, about -$0.5T deficit
• 2011: $2.2T in, $3.8T out, about -$1.6T deficit
• 2012: $2.6T in, $3.7 out, about -$1.1T deficit (estimates)

It's not terribly difficult to follow. In 2011, the deficit increased $1T from what it was in 2008. So...

• 70% of that extra 2011 deficit is due to increased spending ($0.8T)
• 30% is reduced tax money ($0.3T).

Continuing to 2012 estimates, tax collection catches up to 2008, returning to pre-recession levels. At that point, the entire trillion dollar deficit will be due to increased spending since 2008. The Obama deficit as the entire increase in the deficit will be due to extra/Obama spending.

QOTD

"Last chance, Marie."
[long, incredible Mini Cooper chase scene]
"We can never come back to this car."
- Jason Bourne

It does strike the casual observers that President Obama is the only actor in this bad theater that really needs something big to happen. President Obama's record thus far: 9% unemployment, anemic GDP growth, trillion dollar deficits, and a heartily despised socialized health plan. What will Obama's 2012 campaign slogan be?

The Tea Party argument for Nov 2012 has already been made and awaits like a favorite Christmas present under the tree with a big bow on top. The Tea Party guys will argue for spending cuts and entitlement reform to stem the tide of massive deficits. They need more Tea Party-ish guys in Congress (and maybe a president) to make this happen. President Obama and the left with argue otherwise. President Obama's budget called for trillion dollar deficits each year throughout the decade, and a continued growth in the size and specter of federal government power.
yow, bill